Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Wellington's maximum temperature on August 15 centers on subtle variations in synoptic setup and local maritime influences from Cook Strait. Current guidance from MetService and seasonal outlooks indicate near-average conditions, with daytime highs likely clustering near 14–15 °C amid variable cloud cover and wind shifts. Southerly flows advect cooler air while northerlies or reduced cloud allow greater solar insolation and slight warming; these factors, plus model spread on frontal timing, explain the tight market split between 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes. Traders weigh historical August baselines of roughly 12–14 °C against evolving forecast runs expected in the next 48 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 15 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 15 de agosto?
15°C 47%
14°C 34%
16°C 14%
13°C 4%
NUEVO
$16,650 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,650 Vol.
15 ago 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
34%
15°C
47%
16°C
14%
17°C
3%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 47%
14°C 34%
16°C 14%
13°C 4%
NUEVO
$16,650 Vol.
NUEVO
$16,650 Vol.
15 ago 2026
9°C or below
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,629 Vol.
2%
13°C
$2,465 Vol.
4%
14°C
$5,075 Vol.
34%
15°C
$2,221 Vol.
47%
16°C
$1,605 Vol.
14%
17°C
$1,174 Vol.
3%
18°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$417 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Wellington's maximum temperature on August 15 centers on subtle variations in synoptic setup and local maritime influences from Cook Strait. Current guidance from MetService and seasonal outlooks indicate near-average conditions, with daytime highs likely clustering near 14–15 °C amid variable cloud cover and wind shifts. Southerly flows advect cooler air while northerlies or reduced cloud allow greater solar insolation and slight warming; these factors, plus model spread on frontal timing, explain the tight market split between 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes. Traders weigh historical August baselines of roughly 12–14 °C against evolving forecast runs expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$16,650Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Wellington's maximum temperature on August 15 centers on subtle variations in synoptic setup and local maritime influences from Cook Strait. Current guidance from MetService and seasonal outlooks indicate near-average conditions, with daytime highs likely clustering near 14–15 °C amid variable cloud cover and wind shifts. Southerly flows advect cooler air while northerlies or reduced cloud allow greater solar insolation and slight warming; these factors, plus model spread on frontal timing, explain the tight market split between 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes. Traders weigh historical August baselines of roughly 12–14 °C against evolving forecast runs expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$16,650Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Wellington's maximum temperature on August 15 centers on subtle variations in synoptic setup and local maritime influences from Cook Strait. Current guidance from MetService and seasonal outlooks indicate near-average conditions, with daytime highs likely clustering near 14–15 °C amid variable cloud cover and wind shifts. Southerly flows advect cooler air while northerlies or reduced cloud allow greater solar insolation and slight warming; these factors, plus model spread on frontal timing, explain the tight market split between 14 °C and 15 °C outcomes. Traders weigh historical August baselines of roughly 12–14 °C against evolving forecast runs expected in the next 48 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes