Recent ensemble forecasts from major models highlight a warm, humid air mass over northern France as the dominant factor keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, supporting trader consensus around a minimum near 22–23 °C for Paris on August 15. High dew points and lingering cloud cover from upstream convection reduce the potential for deeper cooling that would otherwise push readings into the upper teens, while light winds prevent strong mixing with cooler air aloft. Minor model spread centers on the timing and extent of any afternoon thunderstorms, which could either enhance or suppress the daily minimum by a degree or two depending on clearing skies after sunset. With resolution still 48 hours away, updates from the next ECMWF and GFS runs will likely determine whether the market tilts further toward the lower or higher of the two leading outcomes.