Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a daytime high of 76-77°F in downtown Los Angeles on August 12, driven by a persistent marine layer and onshore flow that limits afternoon warming along the coast. Ensemble runs show minimal spread around this range, with sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms and no strong offshore winds or clear-sky heating expected to push readings higher. Traders have anchored probabilities on these consensus outputs, as historical August maxima in the basin average 78-82°F yet recent coastal observations have trended cooler. Updated model runs tonight and tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts that could shift the distribution if the inversion strengthens or weakens.