**Forecast model consensus for Warsaw points to a maximum near 24–25°C on August 13, with limited spread reflecting typical mid-August variability under moderate high pressure and light northeasterly flow.** Official guidance from sources such as the BBC and timeanddate.com currently favors 24°C, while some ensemble members reach 25–26°C depending on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Diurnal heating peaks will hinge on subtle differences in incoming solar radiation, dew-point advection, and any weak frontal passages that could suppress or enhance afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly between 23°C and 25°C, traders are pricing the inherent uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction, where small errors in initial conditions or parameterization of surface fluxes often determine the exact daily maximum. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.