Traders are pricing the 15°C outcome highest (47.5%) for Wellington’s August 13 maximum because short-range MetService and ensemble guidance consistently indicate daytime highs of 14–15°C under a northerly flow regime that advects milder maritime air across Cook Strait. Persistent southerlies earlier in the month suppressed maxima to 10–12°C, but recent model runs show a ridge building and lighter winds allowing greater insolation and reduced marine cooling. Climatological August averages near 12°C provide context, while NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures overall. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover and any showers that could cap warming, with updated forecasts expected to refine the 14–16°C range before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 13 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 13 de agosto?
15°C 50%
16°C 27%
14°C 23%
18°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 ago 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
23%
15°C
50%
16°C
27%
17°C
5%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 50%
16°C 27%
14°C 23%
18°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 ago 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10 Vol.
1%
12°C
$23 Vol.
2%
13°C
$7 Vol.
2%
14°C
$19 Vol.
23%
15°C
$124 Vol.
50%
16°C
$1 Vol.
27%
17°C
$1 Vol.
5%
18°C
$5 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing the 15°C outcome highest (47.5%) for Wellington’s August 13 maximum because short-range MetService and ensemble guidance consistently indicate daytime highs of 14–15°C under a northerly flow regime that advects milder maritime air across Cook Strait. Persistent southerlies earlier in the month suppressed maxima to 10–12°C, but recent model runs show a ridge building and lighter winds allowing greater insolation and reduced marine cooling. Climatological August averages near 12°C provide context, while NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures overall. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover and any showers that could cap warming, with updated forecasts expected to refine the 14–16°C range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$220Fecha de finalización
13 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing the 15°C outcome highest (47.5%) for Wellington’s August 13 maximum because short-range MetService and ensemble guidance consistently indicate daytime highs of 14–15°C under a northerly flow regime that advects milder maritime air across Cook Strait. Persistent southerlies earlier in the month suppressed maxima to 10–12°C, but recent model runs show a ridge building and lighter winds allowing greater insolation and reduced marine cooling. Climatological August averages near 12°C provide context, while NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures overall. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover and any showers that could cap warming, with updated forecasts expected to refine the 14–16°C range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$220Fecha de finalización
13 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the 15°C outcome highest (47.5%) for Wellington’s August 13 maximum because short-range MetService and ensemble guidance consistently indicate daytime highs of 14–15°C under a northerly flow regime that advects milder maritime air across Cook Strait. Persistent southerlies earlier in the month suppressed maxima to 10–12°C, but recent model runs show a ridge building and lighter winds allowing greater insolation and reduced marine cooling. Climatological August averages near 12°C provide context, while NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures overall. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover and any showers that could cap warming, with updated forecasts expected to refine the 14–16°C range before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes