Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes (41.5% implied probability) for April 2026, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182, as preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports from early outbreaks on April 2–3 and a Midwest event on April 13—yielding at least 20 confirmed tornadoes across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—suggest a near-normal pace midway through the month. Elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) values exceeding 2000 J/kg, combined with strong veering wind shear in the 0–6 km layer, have fueled supercell activity, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (26.1%) amid year-to-date reports topping 290. However, historical confirmation rates confirm only about 65% of preliminary reports, tempering upside risk. SPC Day 1–3 outlooks signal ongoing severe potential through month-end, with final NOAA counts due early May.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en abril?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en abril?
170–199 38%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 Vol.
$38,432 Vol.
10 may 2026
<140
8%
140–169
31%
170–199
38%
200–229
10%
230–259
5%
260–289
18%
290–319
13%
320–350
23%
350+
6%
170–199 38%
140–169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 10%
$38,432 Vol.
$38,432 Vol.
10 may 2026
<140
$8,909 Vol.
8%
140–169
$6,632 Vol.
31%
170–199
$427 Vol.
38%
200–229
$95 Vol.
10%
230–259
$92 Vol.
5%
260–289
$128 Vol.
18%
290–319
$258 Vol.
13%
320–350
$154 Vol.
23%
350+
$21,736 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes (41.5% implied probability) for April 2026, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182, as preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports from early outbreaks on April 2–3 and a Midwest event on April 13—yielding at least 20 confirmed tornadoes across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—suggest a near-normal pace midway through the month. Elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) values exceeding 2000 J/kg, combined with strong veering wind shear in the 0–6 km layer, have fueled supercell activity, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (26.1%) amid year-to-date reports topping 290. However, historical confirmation rates confirm only about 65% of preliminary reports, tempering upside risk. SPC Day 1–3 outlooks signal ongoing severe potential through month-end, with final NOAA counts due early May.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volumen
$38,432Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes (41.5% implied probability) for April 2026, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182, as preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports from early outbreaks on April 2–3 and a Midwest event on April 13—yielding at least 20 confirmed tornadoes across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—suggest a near-normal pace midway through the month. Elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) values exceeding 2000 J/kg, combined with strong veering wind shear in the 0–6 km layer, have fueled supercell activity, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (26.1%) amid year-to-date reports topping 290. However, historical confirmation rates confirm only about 65% of preliminary reports, tempering upside risk. SPC Day 1–3 outlooks signal ongoing severe potential through month-end, with final NOAA counts due early May.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$38,432Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes (41.5% implied probability) for April 2026, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 NOAA average of 182, as preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports from early outbreaks on April 2–3 and a Midwest event on April 13—yielding at least 20 confirmed tornadoes across Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—suggest a near-normal pace midway through the month. Elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) values exceeding 2000 J/kg, combined with strong veering wind shear in the 0–6 km layer, have fueled supercell activity, boosting higher bins like 320–350 (26.1%) amid year-to-date reports topping 290. However, historical confirmation rates confirm only about 65% of preliminary reports, tempering upside risk. SPC Day 1–3 outlooks signal ongoing severe potential through month-end, with final NOAA counts due early May.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes