Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large-scale uranium processing inoperable. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these sites since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance underscores persistent barriers to reconstitution. These developments, combined with credible monitoring of Iran's program and the risk of further military action, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$258,424 Vol.
$258,424 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$258,424 Vol.
$258,424 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large-scale uranium processing inoperable. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these sites since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance underscores persistent barriers to reconstitution. These developments, combined with credible monitoring of Iran's program and the risk of further military action, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$258,424Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large-scale uranium processing inoperable. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these sites since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance underscores persistent barriers to reconstitution. These developments, combined with credible monitoring of Iran's program and the risk of further military action, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$258,424Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling most centrifuges and rendering large-scale uranium processing inoperable. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these sites since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex. The agency's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance underscores persistent barriers to reconstitution. These developments, combined with credible monitoring of Iran's program and the risk of further military action, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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