Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment infrastructure, while IAEA reports through September 2026 document persistent access restrictions and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on inspections and downblending, alongside Iran's public reaffirmation of NPT commitments, have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Construction activity noted at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz represents the most recent verifiable development but shows no confirmed link to weaponization or testing timelines. A sudden policy shift by Iranian leadership or rapid escalation in regional tensions could still alter this outlook within the narrow window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$258,539 Vol.
$258,539 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment infrastructure, while IAEA reports through September 2026 document persistent access restrictions and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on inspections and downblending, alongside Iran's public reaffirmation of NPT commitments, have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Construction activity noted at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz represents the most recent verifiable development but shows no confirmed link to weaponization or testing timelines. A sudden policy shift by Iranian leadership or rapid escalation in regional tensions could still alter this outlook within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$258,539Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment infrastructure, while IAEA reports through September 2026 document persistent access restrictions and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on inspections and downblending, alongside Iran's public reaffirmation of NPT commitments, have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Construction activity noted at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz represents the most recent verifiable development but shows no confirmed link to weaponization or testing timelines. A sudden policy shift by Iranian leadership or rapid escalation in regional tensions could still alter this outlook within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$258,539Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment infrastructure, while IAEA reports through September 2026 document persistent access restrictions and unresolved questions over stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on inspections and downblending, alongside Iran's public reaffirmation of NPT commitments, have reinforced trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Construction activity noted at the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz represents the most recent verifiable development but shows no confirmed link to weaponization or testing timelines. A sudden policy shift by Iranian leadership or rapid escalation in regional tensions could still alter this outlook within the narrow window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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