Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en la Ciudad de México el 3 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en la Ciudad de México el 3 de septiembre?
14°C 99%
9°C 20%
13°C 20%
8°C o menos 14%
$1,212 Vol.
$1,212 Vol.
3 sep 2026
8°C o menos
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Sí
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C o más
No
14°C 99%
9°C 20%
13°C 20%
8°C o menos 14%
$1,212 Vol.
$1,212 Vol.
3 sep 2026
8°C o menos
$62 Vol.
No
9°C
$12 Vol.
No
10°C
$59 Vol.
No
11°C
$89 Vol.
No
12°C
$92 Vol.
No
13°C
$120 Vol.
No
14°C
$331 Vol.
Sí
15°C
$186 Vol.
No
16°C
$112 Vol.
No
17°C
$62 Vol.
No
18°C o más
$87 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volumen
$1,212Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,212Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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