Recent forecast model runs from European and U.S. agencies show substantial spread for minimum temperatures in Paris on September 25, with ensemble members split between a cooler Atlantic trough and a warmer southerly flow. This bifurcation explains the near-even market-implied odds between 9 °C or below and 19 °C or higher. Key differentiating factors include the exact track and strength of an approaching low-pressure system, the degree of cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, and boundary-layer moisture levels that modulate the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology places average overnight lows near 12–14 °C, so the current dispersion reflects genuine short-range uncertainty rather than seasonal extremes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range and shift trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 25 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 25 de septiembre?
15°C 37%
17 °C 37%
11°C 23%
10°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
9°C o menos
20%
10°C
22%
11°C
23%
12°C
21%
13°C
19%
14°C
16%
15°C
37%
16°C
5%
17 °C
37%
18°C
5%
19°C o más
1%
15°C 37%
17 °C 37%
11°C 23%
10°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 sep 2026
9°C o menos
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$0 Vol.
5%
17 °C
$0 Vol.
37%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C o más
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European and U.S. agencies show substantial spread for minimum temperatures in Paris on September 25, with ensemble members split between a cooler Atlantic trough and a warmer southerly flow. This bifurcation explains the near-even market-implied odds between 9 °C or below and 19 °C or higher. Key differentiating factors include the exact track and strength of an approaching low-pressure system, the degree of cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, and boundary-layer moisture levels that modulate the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology places average overnight lows near 12–14 °C, so the current dispersion reflects genuine short-range uncertainty rather than seasonal extremes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range and shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European and U.S. agencies show substantial spread for minimum temperatures in Paris on September 25, with ensemble members split between a cooler Atlantic trough and a warmer southerly flow. This bifurcation explains the near-even market-implied odds between 9 °C or below and 19 °C or higher. Key differentiating factors include the exact track and strength of an approaching low-pressure system, the degree of cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, and boundary-layer moisture levels that modulate the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology places average overnight lows near 12–14 °C, so the current dispersion reflects genuine short-range uncertainty rather than seasonal extremes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range and shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
25 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from European and U.S. agencies show substantial spread for minimum temperatures in Paris on September 25, with ensemble members split between a cooler Atlantic trough and a warmer southerly flow. This bifurcation explains the near-even market-implied odds between 9 °C or below and 19 °C or higher. Key differentiating factors include the exact track and strength of an approaching low-pressure system, the degree of cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling, and boundary-layer moisture levels that modulate the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology places average overnight lows near 12–14 °C, so the current dispersion reflects genuine short-range uncertainty rather than seasonal extremes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range and shift trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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