Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 18 de julio?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 18 de julio?
24°C 100.0%
23°C o menos <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Vol.
$92,911 Vol.
18 jul 2026
23°C o menos
No
24°C
Sí
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C o más
No
24°C 100.0%
23°C o menos <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,911 Vol.
$92,911 Vol.
18 jul 2026
23°C o menos
$5,158 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,202 Vol.
Sí
25°C
$20,915 Vol.
No
26°C
$23,410 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,775 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,798 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,126 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,940 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,394 Vol.
No
32°C
$726 Vol.
No
33°C o más
$468 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$92,911Fecha de finalización
18 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$92,911Fecha de finalización
18 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus reflects high uncertainty in Shanghai’s July 18 minimum temperature, with 29 °C and 23 °C-or-below outcomes nearly tied near 39 % and 38 % implied probability. Typical mid-July overnight lows average 25–27 °C under humid subtropical conditions, but recent model runs show potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if clearer skies develop after daytime convection, versus warmer minima near 28–29 °C if persistent cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms—already indicated in extended forecasts—limit radiative heat loss. Shanghai’s urban heat island and high humidity further compress the diurnal range, keeping outcomes clustered between 25–29 °C while rendering sub-24 °C values sensitive to any late-model shifts in precipitation timing or wind. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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