**Incoming rain and northerly flow are cooling Tokyo ahead of September 4.** Official and model guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms, which limit daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling overnight. This setup favors a daily minimum near 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 22–24 °C outcomes. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs indicate a modest cold-air advection behind the front, consistent with early-September climatology when Tokyo’s average low falls to about 22 °C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly warmer boundary-layer mixing against the likelihood of heavier rain suppressing temperatures further. The next JMA forecast update and refined model consensus will be the key near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 4 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 4 de septiembre?
23°C 55%
24°C 45%
22°C 28%
25°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
18°C o menos
8%
19°C
8%
20°C
15%
21°C
17%
22°C
28%
23°C
55%
24°C
45%
25°C
18%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C o más
2%
23°C 55%
24°C 45%
22°C 28%
25°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
18°C o menos
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C
$0 Vol.
28%
23°C
$0 Vol.
55%
24°C
$0 Vol.
45%
25°C
$0 Vol.
18%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C o más
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming rain and northerly flow are cooling Tokyo ahead of September 4.** Official and model guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms, which limit daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling overnight. This setup favors a daily minimum near 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 22–24 °C outcomes. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs indicate a modest cold-air advection behind the front, consistent with early-September climatology when Tokyo’s average low falls to about 22 °C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly warmer boundary-layer mixing against the likelihood of heavier rain suppressing temperatures further. The next JMA forecast update and refined model consensus will be the key near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Incoming rain and northerly flow are cooling Tokyo ahead of September 4.** Official and model guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms, which limit daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling overnight. This setup favors a daily minimum near 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 22–24 °C outcomes. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs indicate a modest cold-air advection behind the front, consistent with early-September climatology when Tokyo’s average low falls to about 22 °C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly warmer boundary-layer mixing against the likelihood of heavier rain suppressing temperatures further. The next JMA forecast update and refined model consensus will be the key near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incoming rain and northerly flow are cooling Tokyo ahead of September 4.** Official and model guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms, which limit daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling overnight. This setup favors a daily minimum near 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 22–24 °C outcomes. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs indicate a modest cold-air advection behind the front, consistent with early-September climatology when Tokyo’s average low falls to about 22 °C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly warmer boundary-layer mixing against the likelihood of heavier rain suppressing temperatures further. The next JMA forecast update and refined model consensus will be the key near-term catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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