Recent MetService and international model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicates Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2 will reach approximately 10 °C overnight under moderate northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Wellington International Airport show temperatures holding in the 13–15 °C range during evening hours with dew points near 8–10 °C, consistent with the seasonal spring baseline and no incoming cold front or radiative cooling enhancement. Traders assign an 82 % implied probability to exactly 10 °C because forecast lows cluster tightly around this threshold, with only modest uncertainty from wind mixing and cloud cover that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower before midnight. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has reinforced this narrow range, limiting shifts in market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 2 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 2 de septiembre?
10°C 99.5%
8°C 7%
7°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$2,068 Vol.
$2,068 Vol.
2 sep 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
10°C 99.5%
8°C 7%
7°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$2,068 Vol.
$2,068 Vol.
2 sep 2026
7°C or below
$273 Vol.
No
8°C
$98 Vol.
No
9°C
$185 Vol.
No
10°C
$197 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$303 Vol.
No
12°C
$167 Vol.
No
13°C
$234 Vol.
No
14°C
$91 Vol.
No
15°C
$131 Vol.
No
16°C
$131 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$258 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicates Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2 will reach approximately 10 °C overnight under moderate northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Wellington International Airport show temperatures holding in the 13–15 °C range during evening hours with dew points near 8–10 °C, consistent with the seasonal spring baseline and no incoming cold front or radiative cooling enhancement. Traders assign an 82 % implied probability to exactly 10 °C because forecast lows cluster tightly around this threshold, with only modest uncertainty from wind mixing and cloud cover that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower before midnight. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has reinforced this narrow range, limiting shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$2,068Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicates Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2 will reach approximately 10 °C overnight under moderate northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Wellington International Airport show temperatures holding in the 13–15 °C range during evening hours with dew points near 8–10 °C, consistent with the seasonal spring baseline and no incoming cold front or radiative cooling enhancement. Traders assign an 82 % implied probability to exactly 10 °C because forecast lows cluster tightly around this threshold, with only modest uncertainty from wind mixing and cloud cover that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower before midnight. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has reinforced this narrow range, limiting shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,068Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Recent MetService and international model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicates Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 2 will reach approximately 10 °C overnight under moderate northwesterly flow and partly cloudy skies. Current observations at Wellington International Airport show temperatures holding in the 13–15 °C range during evening hours with dew points near 8–10 °C, consistent with the seasonal spring baseline and no incoming cold front or radiative cooling enhancement. Traders assign an 82 % implied probability to exactly 10 °C because forecast lows cluster tightly around this threshold, with only modest uncertainty from wind mixing and cloud cover that could nudge readings a degree higher or lower before midnight. Updated model guidance issued in the past 24 hours has reinforced this narrow range, limiting shifts in market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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