Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMakerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Burnham 9%+ 100.0%
Burnham 6-9% <1%
Burnham 3-6% <1%
Burnham <3% <1%
$66,396 Vol.
$66,396 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
Yes
Burnham 6-9%
No
Burnham 3-6%
No
Burnham <3%
No
Kenyon <3%
No
Kenyon 3-6%
No
Kenyon 6%+
No
Other
No
Burnham 9%+ 100.0%
Burnham 6-9% <1%
Burnham 3-6% <1%
Burnham <3% <1%
$66,396 Vol.
$66,396 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
$20,970 Vol.
Yes
Burnham 6-9%
$10,485 Vol.
No
Burnham 3-6%
$6,882 Vol.
No
Burnham <3%
$7,435 Vol.
No
Kenyon <3%
$5,825 Vol.
No
Kenyon 3-6%
$3,463 Vol.
No
Kenyon 6%+
$5,735 Vol.
No
Other
$5,601 Vol.
No
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volumen
$66,396Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$66,396Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Yes
Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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