Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent performance. Long-serving Republican Tom Cole, first elected in 2002, faces a primary challenger but holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million. The June 16, 2026, primaries will determine general election nominees, yet the district's southern Oklahoma base, encompassing Lawton and parts of the Oklahoma City metro, has delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability due to these structural advantages. A Democratic upset would require unusually high turnout or an unforeseen primary disruption, both viewed as low-probability events given historical voting patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOK-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
OK-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
5%
$22,501 Vol.
$22,501 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$14,337 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$8,164 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent performance. Long-serving Republican Tom Cole, first elected in 2002, faces a primary challenger but holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million. The June 16, 2026, primaries will determine general election nominees, yet the district's southern Oklahoma base, encompassing Lawton and parts of the Oklahoma City metro, has delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability due to these structural advantages. A Democratic upset would require unusually high turnout or an unforeseen primary disruption, both viewed as low-probability events given historical voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$22,501Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent performance. Long-serving Republican Tom Cole, first elected in 2002, faces a primary challenger but holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million. The June 16, 2026, primaries will determine general election nominees, yet the district's southern Oklahoma base, encompassing Lawton and parts of the Oklahoma City metro, has delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability due to these structural advantages. A Democratic upset would require unusually high turnout or an unforeseen primary disruption, both viewed as low-probability events given historical voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$22,501Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 partisan voting index and the incumbent's consistent performance. Long-serving Republican Tom Cole, first elected in 2002, faces a primary challenger but holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $2 million. The June 16, 2026, primaries will determine general election nominees, yet the district's southern Oklahoma base, encompassing Lawton and parts of the Oklahoma City metro, has delivered Republican victories by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price the Republican nominee at 93.5% implied probability due to these structural advantages. A Democratic upset would require unusually high turnout or an unforeseen primary disruption, both viewed as low-probability events given historical voting patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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