Yabloko, Russia's sole registered anti-war party, faces steep structural barriers ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. Recent polling places the party at roughly 3 percent nationally, well below the 5 percent threshold required for proportional representation seats. Administrative pressure has intensified, with dozens of candidates disqualified on legal pretexts and key figures such as former leader Nikolai Rybakov barred from running. While the Central Election Commission registered Yabloko's federal list in late July, historical results (1.2–1.3 percent in 2021) and the tightly managed electoral environment continue to limit its reach. Traders price these constraints into the 94 percent probability that the party will again fall short.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones en Rusia: ¿Yabloko supera el umbral de la Duma?
Elecciones en Rusia: ¿Yabloko supera el umbral de la Duma?
Sí
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Sí
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Yabloko, Russia's sole registered anti-war party, faces steep structural barriers ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. Recent polling places the party at roughly 3 percent nationally, well below the 5 percent threshold required for proportional representation seats. Administrative pressure has intensified, with dozens of candidates disqualified on legal pretexts and key figures such as former leader Nikolai Rybakov barred from running. While the Central Election Commission registered Yabloko's federal list in late July, historical results (1.2–1.3 percent in 2021) and the tightly managed electoral environment continue to limit its reach. Traders price these constraints into the 94 percent probability that the party will again fall short.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volumen
$5,703Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Yabloko, Russia's sole registered anti-war party, faces steep structural barriers ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. Recent polling places the party at roughly 3 percent nationally, well below the 5 percent threshold required for proportional representation seats. Administrative pressure has intensified, with dozens of candidates disqualified on legal pretexts and key figures such as former leader Nikolai Rybakov barred from running. While the Central Election Commission registered Yabloko's federal list in late July, historical results (1.2–1.3 percent in 2021) and the tightly managed electoral environment continue to limit its reach. Traders price these constraints into the 94 percent probability that the party will again fall short.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volumen
$5,703Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yabloko, Russia's sole registered anti-war party, faces steep structural barriers ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. Recent polling places the party at roughly 3 percent nationally, well below the 5 percent threshold required for proportional representation seats. Administrative pressure has intensified, with dozens of candidates disqualified on legal pretexts and key figures such as former leader Nikolai Rybakov barred from running. While the Central Election Commission registered Yabloko's federal list in late July, historical results (1.2–1.3 percent in 2021) and the tightly managed electoral environment continue to limit its reach. Traders price these constraints into the 94 percent probability that the party will again fall short.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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