Recent developments center on the conclusion of congressional ethics proceedings against Rep. Tony Gonzales rather than any federal criminal probe. Following public allegations of improper relationships with staffers and an ensuing House Ethics Committee review, Gonzales resigned from Congress in April 2026, ending the formal congressional process without referral for prosecution. No Department of Justice investigation, indictment, or charging documents have surfaced in subsequent weeks, and standard procedural timelines make new criminal filings before the June 30 deadline improbable absent an abrupt announcement. Traders therefore assign high probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of active criminal referrals or enforcement signals in the narrow remaining window.