Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, including airstrikes since February 2026 that targeted nuclear and military sites and eliminated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have not escalated to a ground invasion. The Trump administration has prioritized air operations, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, expanded sanctions under initiatives like Operation Economic Outcast, and intermittent diplomacy through memoranda of understanding, despite repeated violations and breakdowns. Military analysts highlight the substantial troop commitments and risks required for any large-scale invasion of Iranian territory, leading officials to favor limited raids or economic pressure instead. Recent mediation efforts involving Qatar and Oman, alongside restrained U.S. responses to Iranian shipping attacks, reinforce trader consensus that a full invasion remains improbable before 2027.