Ongoing diplomatic efforts via intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, including a June 2026 memorandum and renewed August talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues, have sustained trader expectations of negotiated de-escalation over ground operations. Recent U.S. actions have centered on airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets and reimposed blockades following July Strait incidents, rather than troop deployments, amid reported U.S. munitions shortages and high operational costs. President Trump has signaled willingness to pause strikes pending quick deals while warning of further pressure, aligning with patterns of air and naval leverage seen since early 2026 hostilities. These factors, combined with the absence of indicators for large-scale invasion planning, underpin the 83.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.