Amazon’s market cap currently hovers near $2.9 trillion following its August 2026 surge above $3 trillion after a strong Q2 earnings beat driven by AWS revenue growth and AI-related demand. This positions the closely matched leading buckets ($2.50–3.00T at 22.5% and $3.00–3.50T at 22.0%) around modest further gains through year-end, reflecting trader focus on sustained cloud margins, retail efficiency, and capital expenditure returns amid elevated valuations near 23x forward earnings. Key swing factors include Q3 results expected in October and holiday sales trends, which could shift implied probabilities if growth accelerates or macro pressures intensify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 23%
$3.00-$3.50T 22%
$4.50T+ 10%
<$2.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
9%
$2.00-$2.50T
8%
$2.50-$3.00T
23%
$3.00-$3.50T
22%
$3.50-$4.00T
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
4%
$4.50T+
10%
$2.50-$3.00T 23%
$3.00-$3.50T 22%
$4.50T+ 10%
<$2.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$141 Vol.
9%
$2.00-$2.50T
$125 Vol.
8%
$2.50-$3.00T
$455 Vol.
23%
$3.00-$3.50T
$121 Vol.
22%
$3.50-$4.00T
$146 Vol.
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
$125 Vol.
4%
$4.50T+
$130 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market cap currently hovers near $2.9 trillion following its August 2026 surge above $3 trillion after a strong Q2 earnings beat driven by AWS revenue growth and AI-related demand. This positions the closely matched leading buckets ($2.50–3.00T at 22.5% and $3.00–3.50T at 22.0%) around modest further gains through year-end, reflecting trader focus on sustained cloud margins, retail efficiency, and capital expenditure returns amid elevated valuations near 23x forward earnings. Key swing factors include Q3 results expected in October and holiday sales trends, which could shift implied probabilities if growth accelerates or macro pressures intensify.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market cap currently hovers near $2.9 trillion following its August 2026 surge above $3 trillion after a strong Q2 earnings beat driven by AWS revenue growth and AI-related demand. This positions the closely matched leading buckets ($2.50–3.00T at 22.5% and $3.00–3.50T at 22.0%) around modest further gains through year-end, reflecting trader focus on sustained cloud margins, retail efficiency, and capital expenditure returns amid elevated valuations near 23x forward earnings. Key swing factors include Q3 results expected in October and holiday sales trends, which could shift implied probabilities if growth accelerates or macro pressures intensify.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s market cap currently hovers near $2.9 trillion following its August 2026 surge above $3 trillion after a strong Q2 earnings beat driven by AWS revenue growth and AI-related demand. This positions the closely matched leading buckets ($2.50–3.00T at 22.5% and $3.00–3.50T at 22.0%) around modest further gains through year-end, reflecting trader focus on sustained cloud margins, retail efficiency, and capital expenditure returns amid elevated valuations near 23x forward earnings. Key swing factors include Q3 results expected in October and holiday sales trends, which could shift implied probabilities if growth accelerates or macro pressures intensify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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