Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$15,465 Vol.
$15,465 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$15,465 Vol.
$15,465 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,066 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$4,399 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$15,465End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,465End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Rick Crawford's unchallenged Republican primary in early March, combined with AR-01's deep-red partisan lean (Cook PVI R+23, the 18th most Republican district nationally), anchors trader consensus at 93% odds for a GOP hold. Crawford, chair of the House Intelligence Committee since last year, dominated past cycles with 73% margins in 2022 and 2024 against underfunded Democrats, bolstered by over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist who advanced unopposed on the Democratic side, shows no competitive fundraising. A shift would require a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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