**The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features a notably larger eligible electorate of roughly 2.5 million voters, up from just over 2.44 million in the February 2023 repeat election.** This expansion stems from increased naturalizations and, for the first time, voting rights extended to 16- and 17-year-olds in the state contest, alongside EU citizens participating in simultaneous district assembly votes. Official state election commission announcements highlight these structural additions as primary drivers of expected participation gains. Recent polling showing a fragmented, competitive field—with AfD, CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left Party clustered near the top—further supports mobilization incentives among core supporters and new cohorts. Traders interpret these factors as establishing a high implied probability that overall turnout will exceed the prior benchmark, with limited near-term developments likely to reverse the pattern before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Up
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).**The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features a notably larger eligible electorate of roughly 2.5 million voters, up from just over 2.44 million in the February 2023 repeat election.** This expansion stems from increased naturalizations and, for the first time, voting rights extended to 16- and 17-year-olds in the state contest, alongside EU citizens participating in simultaneous district assembly votes. Official state election commission announcements highlight these structural additions as primary drivers of expected participation gains. Recent polling showing a fragmented, competitive field—with AfD, CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left Party clustered near the top—further supports mobilization incentives among core supporters and new cohorts. Traders interpret these factors as establishing a high implied probability that overall turnout will exceed the prior benchmark, with limited near-term developments likely to reverse the pattern before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,771End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).**The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features a notably larger eligible electorate of roughly 2.5 million voters, up from just over 2.44 million in the February 2023 repeat election.** This expansion stems from increased naturalizations and, for the first time, voting rights extended to 16- and 17-year-olds in the state contest, alongside EU citizens participating in simultaneous district assembly votes. Official state election commission announcements highlight these structural additions as primary drivers of expected participation gains. Recent polling showing a fragmented, competitive field—with AfD, CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left Party clustered near the top—further supports mobilization incentives among core supporters and new cohorts. Traders interpret these factors as establishing a high implied probability that overall turnout will exceed the prior benchmark, with limited near-term developments likely to reverse the pattern before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$1,771End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features a notably larger eligible electorate of roughly 2.5 million voters, up from just over 2.44 million in the February 2023 repeat election.** This expansion stems from increased naturalizations and, for the first time, voting rights extended to 16- and 17-year-olds in the state contest, alongside EU citizens participating in simultaneous district assembly votes. Official state election commission announcements highlight these structural additions as primary drivers of expected participation gains. Recent polling showing a fragmented, competitive field—with AfD, CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left Party clustered near the top—further supports mobilization incentives among core supporters and new cohorts. Traders interpret these factors as establishing a high implied probability that overall turnout will exceed the prior benchmark, with limited near-term developments likely to reverse the pattern before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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