The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
Grüne
88%
SPD
85%
Linke
54%
CDU
42%
AfD
6%
FDP
6%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
$2,914 Vol.
Grüne
$83 Vol.
88%
SPD
$104 Vol.
85%
Linke
$339 Vol.
54%
CDU
$271 Vol.
42%
AfD
$1,118 Vol.
6%
FDP
$146 Vol.
6%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
FW
$573 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,914End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$2,914End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election features an unusually tight four-way race, with recent polls showing Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen clustered between roughly 16% and 22%. The incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Kai Wegner (recently replaced as lead candidate by Stefan Evers) confronts a late surge by Die Linke, driven by housing and cost-of-living concerns, while the AfD continues to gain but remains excluded from coalition talks by the other parties’ firewall. No two-party combination currently projects a majority of the 159 seats, making three-party alliances the probable path to government. Die Grünen and SPD appear positioned as near-certain participants in any viable majority, whether a CDU-led Kenya coalition or a Linke-led red-red-green arrangement. Coalition talks following the vote will determine final participation, with FDP and BSW unlikely to clear the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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