Persistent drought, multiple heatwaves, and below-average Alpine snowfall have driven the Rhine to record-low levels at key gauges like Kaub, where depths fell below 25 cm in early August—well under the roughly 78 cm threshold for normal commercial navigation. Limited rainfall forecasts through mid-August suggest restricted shipping and elevated costs will continue, supporting trader emphasis on delayed recovery. Seasonal patterns indicate the lowest levels often occur in September–October, yet any sustained precipitation across the basin could accelerate rebound. The narrow spread among October, September, and post-November outcomes reflects high uncertainty in medium-term weather, with short-term relief possible but insufficient for full normalization without broader hydrological improvement.