Recent softening in the 2026 Mega Evolution Black Star Promo Charmander #038 has anchored ungraded copies in the mid-to-high $30s following earlier spikes near $45–50, creating the tight 54.5% market-implied probability it clears the $38.92 threshold by August 31. Traders point to clustered TCGPlayer and eBay sales around $35–38.50 amid a post-hype correction across first-partner promos, offset by the broader Pokémon TCG market’s steady 3% monthly gain. The August 28 launch of the Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes tin stands as the key near-term catalyst that could revive illustration-rare demand, while daily sales velocity and any late collector interest will determine whether the card holds or slips below the line before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCharmander Price Up/Down on August 31?
Charmander Price Up/Down on August 31?
Up
55% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Up
55% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Up” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $38.92.
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).Recent softening in the 2026 Mega Evolution Black Star Promo Charmander #038 has anchored ungraded copies in the mid-to-high $30s following earlier spikes near $45–50, creating the tight 54.5% market-implied probability it clears the $38.92 threshold by August 31. Traders point to clustered TCGPlayer and eBay sales around $35–38.50 amid a post-hype correction across first-partner promos, offset by the broader Pokémon TCG market’s steady 3% monthly gain. The August 28 launch of the Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes tin stands as the key near-term catalyst that could revive illustration-rare demand, while daily sales velocity and any late collector interest will determine whether the card holds or slips below the line before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Up” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $38.92.
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://app.getcollectr.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Up” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $38.92.
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).Recent softening in the 2026 Mega Evolution Black Star Promo Charmander #038 has anchored ungraded copies in the mid-to-high $30s following earlier spikes near $45–50, creating the tight 54.5% market-implied probability it clears the $38.92 threshold by August 31. Traders point to clustered TCGPlayer and eBay sales around $35–38.50 amid a post-hype correction across first-partner promos, offset by the broader Pokémon TCG market’s steady 3% monthly gain. The August 28 launch of the Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes tin stands as the key near-term catalyst that could revive illustration-rare demand, while daily sales velocity and any late collector interest will determine whether the card holds or slips below the line before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Up” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $38.92.
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).
This market will resolve to “Down” if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $38.92.
This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Charmander (Mega Evolution Promos, Promo 038) on August 31, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $38.92.
This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date. Any later revisions or retractions will not be considered.
If no final Ungraded Price value for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the final Ungraded Price value for the most recent date preceding the specified date for which such a value is available as of that time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or it ceases to publish and make available the Ungraded Price of the specified item, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the “Ungraded Price” for the specified item on Collectr (https://app.getcollectr.com/).
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolution Source
https://app.getcollectr.com/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent softening in the 2026 Mega Evolution Black Star Promo Charmander #038 has anchored ungraded copies in the mid-to-high $30s following earlier spikes near $45–50, creating the tight 54.5% market-implied probability it clears the $38.92 threshold by August 31. Traders point to clustered TCGPlayer and eBay sales around $35–38.50 amid a post-hype correction across first-partner promos, offset by the broader Pokémon TCG market’s steady 3% monthly gain. The August 28 launch of the Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes tin stands as the key near-term catalyst that could revive illustration-rare demand, while daily sales velocity and any late collector interest will determine whether the card holds or slips below the line before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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