**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project a high near 30–31°C for Beijing on September 11 under clear skies and light northerly or variable winds.** Stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating, consistent with early-September climatology when daily maxima often reach the upper 20s to low 30s before autumn cooling strengthens. Recent observations show temperatures rising from 25°C on the 9th toward 28–30°C on the 10th, supporting the market’s emphasis on 31°C (49% implied probability) and 32°C (28.5%). Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and resolution criteria around peak afternoon readings, with limited upside risk absent unexpected warm advection. Updated runs from CMA and global centers in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 11?
31°C 49%
32°C 27%
30°C 14%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
14%
31°C
49%
32°C
27%
33°C
4%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
32°C 27%
30°C 14%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$291 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$723 Vol.
2%
28°C
$399 Vol.
3%
29°C
$514 Vol.
7%
30°C
$220 Vol.
14%
31°C
$1,531 Vol.
49%
32°C
$921 Vol.
27%
33°C
$960 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
3%
35°C or higher
$191 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project a high near 30–31°C for Beijing on September 11 under clear skies and light northerly or variable winds.** Stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating, consistent with early-September climatology when daily maxima often reach the upper 20s to low 30s before autumn cooling strengthens. Recent observations show temperatures rising from 25°C on the 9th toward 28–30°C on the 10th, supporting the market’s emphasis on 31°C (49% implied probability) and 32°C (28.5%). Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and resolution criteria around peak afternoon readings, with limited upside risk absent unexpected warm advection. Updated runs from CMA and global centers in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,945End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project a high near 30–31°C for Beijing on September 11 under clear skies and light northerly or variable winds.** Stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating, consistent with early-September climatology when daily maxima often reach the upper 20s to low 30s before autumn cooling strengthens. Recent observations show temperatures rising from 25°C on the 9th toward 28–30°C on the 10th, supporting the market’s emphasis on 31°C (49% implied probability) and 32°C (28.5%). Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and resolution criteria around peak afternoon readings, with limited upside risk absent unexpected warm advection. Updated runs from CMA and global centers in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,945End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles project a high near 30–31°C for Beijing on September 11 under clear skies and light northerly or variable winds.** Stable high-pressure conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating, consistent with early-September climatology when daily maxima often reach the upper 20s to low 30s before autumn cooling strengthens. Recent observations show temperatures rising from 25°C on the 9th toward 28–30°C on the 10th, supporting the market’s emphasis on 31°C (49% implied probability) and 32°C (28.5%). Traders are weighting the latest model consensus and resolution criteria around peak afternoon readings, with limited upside risk absent unexpected warm advection. Updated runs from CMA and global centers in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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