Recent rainfall and a cold front passage over Beijing on September 7–8 have advected cooler, drier air into the region, setting the stage for the September 9 minimum. Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and numerical models project clearing skies overnight on the 9th with light winds (1–3 m/s), favoring strong radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clear conditions. This should produce a low near 12–14 °C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Drier air (lower dew points) and the absence of cloud cover enhance nocturnal temperature drops compared with the preceding overcast, rainy nights. Historical September 9 lows average 17.5 °C, but the post-frontal setup favors values several degrees below that baseline. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance heavily, with the 19 °C+ outcome priced lower amid consensus for continued moderation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
19°C or higher 57%
14°C 30%
12°C 27%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
11%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
30%
15°C
27%
16°C
24%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
57%
19°C or higher 57%
14°C 30%
12°C 27%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
9°C or below
$21 Vol.
3%
10°C
$10 Vol.
7%
11°C
$0 Vol.
11%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$50 Vol.
8%
18°C
$65 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$50 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent rainfall and a cold front passage over Beijing on September 7–8 have advected cooler, drier air into the region, setting the stage for the September 9 minimum. Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and numerical models project clearing skies overnight on the 9th with light winds (1–3 m/s), favoring strong radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clear conditions. This should produce a low near 12–14 °C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Drier air (lower dew points) and the absence of cloud cover enhance nocturnal temperature drops compared with the preceding overcast, rainy nights. Historical September 9 lows average 17.5 °C, but the post-frontal setup favors values several degrees below that baseline. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance heavily, with the 19 °C+ outcome priced lower amid consensus for continued moderation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$195End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent rainfall and a cold front passage over Beijing on September 7–8 have advected cooler, drier air into the region, setting the stage for the September 9 minimum. Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and numerical models project clearing skies overnight on the 9th with light winds (1–3 m/s), favoring strong radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clear conditions. This should produce a low near 12–14 °C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Drier air (lower dew points) and the absence of cloud cover enhance nocturnal temperature drops compared with the preceding overcast, rainy nights. Historical September 9 lows average 17.5 °C, but the post-frontal setup favors values several degrees below that baseline. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance heavily, with the 19 °C+ outcome priced lower amid consensus for continued moderation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$195End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent rainfall and a cold front passage over Beijing on September 7–8 have advected cooler, drier air into the region, setting the stage for the September 9 minimum. Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Bureau and numerical models project clearing skies overnight on the 9th with light winds (1–3 m/s), favoring strong radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clear conditions. This should produce a low near 12–14 °C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Drier air (lower dew points) and the absence of cloud cover enhance nocturnal temperature drops compared with the preceding overcast, rainy nights. Historical September 9 lows average 17.5 °C, but the post-frontal setup favors values several degrees below that baseline. Traders appear to weigh the official guidance heavily, with the 19 °C+ outcome priced lower amid consensus for continued moderation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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