Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts and real-time observations peg Busan's highest temperature on May 1 at 23–24°C, driving the 100% market-implied probability for 24°C amid mostly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and 20% precipitation odds that have capped peak heating from a lingering cool air mass. Hourly readings aligned precisely with model guidance, peaking near 23°C by mid-afternoon under suppressed solar insolation below seasonal norms for early May, when historical averages hover around 20–22°C. This trader consensus reflects strong alignment between official data and skin-in-the-game positioning. A late-day clearing or wind shift could push above 25°C, though diminishing sun angle and overcast persistence make it improbable; final KMA station measurements will confirm resolution by midnight.