Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Vol.
$55,071 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Vol.
$55,071 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
$762 Vol.
No
15°C
$667 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,104 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,130 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,792 Vol.
No
19°C
$7,581 Vol.
No
20°C
$8,848 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$7,116 Vol.
No
22°C
$13,101 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,596 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$5,375 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$55,071End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$55,071End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions