Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Guangzhou on April 25, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport recording peak afternoon readings of exactly 30°C under sunny skies, light winds, and springtime subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with pre-day forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which projected highs near 30°C following thunderstorms that capped April 24 at 22°C. Historical April climatology supports such peaks, with average highs around 26°C but frequent 30°C outliers in clear conditions. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst exceeding 31°C or measurement revisions, though evening cooling to 20-22°C minimizes risks; final daily summary expected soon from CMA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 25?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 25?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$121,209 Vol.
$121,209 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$121,209 Vol.
$121,209 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
24°C or below
$3,265 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,759 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,920 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,061 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,191 Vol.
No
29°C
$65,614 Vol.
No
30°C
$11,238 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$6,608 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,222 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,398 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$3,932 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Guangzhou on April 25, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport recording peak afternoon readings of exactly 30°C under sunny skies, light winds, and springtime subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with pre-day forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which projected highs near 30°C following thunderstorms that capped April 24 at 22°C. Historical April climatology supports such peaks, with average highs around 26°C but frequent 30°C outliers in clear conditions. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst exceeding 31°C or measurement revisions, though evening cooling to 20-22°C minimizes risks; final daily summary expected soon from CMA.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$121,209End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Guangzhou on April 25, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport recording peak afternoon readings of exactly 30°C under sunny skies, light winds, and springtime subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with pre-day forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which projected highs near 30°C following thunderstorms that capped April 24 at 22°C. Historical April climatology supports such peaks, with average highs around 26°C but frequent 30°C outliers in clear conditions. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst exceeding 31°C or measurement revisions, though evening cooling to 20-22°C minimizes risks; final daily summary expected soon from CMA.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$121,209End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature in Guangzhou on April 25, driven by China Meteorological Administration observations at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport recording peak afternoon readings of exactly 30°C under sunny skies, light winds, and springtime subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with pre-day forecast model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which projected highs near 30°C following thunderstorms that capped April 24 at 22°C. Historical April climatology supports such peaks, with average highs around 26°C but frequent 30°C outliers in clear conditions. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst exceeding 31°C or measurement revisions, though evening cooling to 20-22°C minimizes risks; final daily summary expected soon from CMA.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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