Strong model consensus from major numerical weather prediction ensembles underpins the near-certain 31°C market-implied probability for Guangzhou’s highest temperature on June 16, matching the city’s climatological June average high. In this humid subtropical monsoon climate, light steering winds, elevated boundary-layer moisture, and moderate solar insolation typically drive afternoon maxima near 30–32°C, while scattered showers and cloud cover cap extremes at official sites such as Baiyun Airport. Recent forecast runs show tight clustering around this value with limited day-to-day variability. A late reduction in convection or brief clearing that boosts insolation could permit a brief rise toward 32–33°C, though current observational trends and ensemble guidance indicate low odds of such shifts before peak heating ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on June 16?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 16?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$67,813 Vol.
$67,813 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$67,813 Vol.
$67,813 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
23°C or below
$411 Vol.
No
24°C
$210 Vol.
No
25°C
$172 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,799 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,833 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,884 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,039 Vol.
No
30°C
$18,874 Vol.
No
31°C
$11,957 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$8,553 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$10,082 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from major numerical weather prediction ensembles underpins the near-certain 31°C market-implied probability for Guangzhou’s highest temperature on June 16, matching the city’s climatological June average high. In this humid subtropical monsoon climate, light steering winds, elevated boundary-layer moisture, and moderate solar insolation typically drive afternoon maxima near 30–32°C, while scattered showers and cloud cover cap extremes at official sites such as Baiyun Airport. Recent forecast runs show tight clustering around this value with limited day-to-day variability. A late reduction in convection or brief clearing that boosts insolation could permit a brief rise toward 32–33°C, though current observational trends and ensemble guidance indicate low odds of such shifts before peak heating ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$67,813End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from major numerical weather prediction ensembles underpins the near-certain 31°C market-implied probability for Guangzhou’s highest temperature on June 16, matching the city’s climatological June average high. In this humid subtropical monsoon climate, light steering winds, elevated boundary-layer moisture, and moderate solar insolation typically drive afternoon maxima near 30–32°C, while scattered showers and cloud cover cap extremes at official sites such as Baiyun Airport. Recent forecast runs show tight clustering around this value with limited day-to-day variability. A late reduction in convection or brief clearing that boosts insolation could permit a brief rise toward 32–33°C, though current observational trends and ensemble guidance indicate low odds of such shifts before peak heating ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,813End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong model consensus from major numerical weather prediction ensembles underpins the near-certain 31°C market-implied probability for Guangzhou’s highest temperature on June 16, matching the city’s climatological June average high. In this humid subtropical monsoon climate, light steering winds, elevated boundary-layer moisture, and moderate solar insolation typically drive afternoon maxima near 30–32°C, while scattered showers and cloud cover cap extremes at official sites such as Baiyun Airport. Recent forecast runs show tight clustering around this value with limited day-to-day variability. A late reduction in convection or brief clearing that boosts insolation could permit a brief rise toward 32–33°C, though current observational trends and ensemble guidance indicate low odds of such shifts before peak heating ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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