Market-implied odds reflect real-time meteorological observations and model consensus confirming a daytime peak of 38°C in Guangzhou on June 4, driven by clear skies allowing strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure before afternoon convection develops. Official forecasts from the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory project a high near this threshold, consistent with June climatology where highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid high humidity that amplifies the heat index. Thunderstorm initiation later in the day is expected to cap further warming. This positioning could shift only if revised surface observations or a faster storm arrival lowers the recorded maximum below the threshold before final data validation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$195,405 Vol.
$195,405 Vol.
Jun 4, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$195,405 Vol.
$195,405 Vol.
Jun 4, 2026
31°C or below
$397 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,907 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,229 Vol.
No
34°C
$10,423 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,357 Vol.
No
36°C
$10,486 Vol.
No
37°C
$9,597 Vol.
No
38°C
$11,994 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$9,235 Vol.
No
40°C
$118,785 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$12,994 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect real-time meteorological observations and model consensus confirming a daytime peak of 38°C in Guangzhou on June 4, driven by clear skies allowing strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure before afternoon convection develops. Official forecasts from the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory project a high near this threshold, consistent with June climatology where highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid high humidity that amplifies the heat index. Thunderstorm initiation later in the day is expected to cap further warming. This positioning could shift only if revised surface observations or a faster storm arrival lowers the recorded maximum below the threshold before final data validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$195,405End Date
Jun 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds reflect real-time meteorological observations and model consensus confirming a daytime peak of 38°C in Guangzhou on June 4, driven by clear skies allowing strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure before afternoon convection develops. Official forecasts from the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory project a high near this threshold, consistent with June climatology where highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid high humidity that amplifies the heat index. Thunderstorm initiation later in the day is expected to cap further warming. This positioning could shift only if revised surface observations or a faster storm arrival lowers the recorded maximum below the threshold before final data validation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$195,405End Date
Jun 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Market-implied odds reflect real-time meteorological observations and model consensus confirming a daytime peak of 38°C in Guangzhou on June 4, driven by clear skies allowing strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure before afternoon convection develops. Official forecasts from the Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory project a high near this threshold, consistent with June climatology where highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid high humidity that amplifies the heat index. Thunderstorm initiation later in the day is expected to cap further warming. This positioning could shift only if revised surface observations or a faster storm arrival lowers the recorded maximum below the threshold before final data validation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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