Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a Houston high temperature of 86°F or higher today, driven by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting 88°F amid hazy, mostly cloudy conditions with southerly winds transporting warm, humid Gulf air. Current observations confirm this trajectory, with 84°F already recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)—the likely resolution station—and heat indices exceeding 90°F, surpassing yesterday's 84°F high in a building ridge of high pressure. This marks Houston's first 90°F reading of 2026 per local reports, well above the April climatological average of 79°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorm development or thickening marine stratus, though model ensembles show low odds; watch NWS evening climate summary for final observed peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on April 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 27?
86°F or higher 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$23,417 Vol.
$23,417 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
Yes
86°F or higher 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$23,417 Vol.
$23,417 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
67°F or below
$2,608 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$781 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$708 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$790 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$833 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$752 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,306 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$2,541 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$4,278 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$3,588 Vol.
No
86°F or higher
$5,233 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a Houston high temperature of 86°F or higher today, driven by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting 88°F amid hazy, mostly cloudy conditions with southerly winds transporting warm, humid Gulf air. Current observations confirm this trajectory, with 84°F already recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)—the likely resolution station—and heat indices exceeding 90°F, surpassing yesterday's 84°F high in a building ridge of high pressure. This marks Houston's first 90°F reading of 2026 per local reports, well above the April climatological average of 79°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorm development or thickening marine stratus, though model ensembles show low odds; watch NWS evening climate summary for final observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$23,417End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a Houston high temperature of 86°F or higher today, driven by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting 88°F amid hazy, mostly cloudy conditions with southerly winds transporting warm, humid Gulf air. Current observations confirm this trajectory, with 84°F already recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)—the likely resolution station—and heat indices exceeding 90°F, surpassing yesterday's 84°F high in a building ridge of high pressure. This marks Houston's first 90°F reading of 2026 per local reports, well above the April climatological average of 79°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorm development or thickening marine stratus, though model ensembles show low odds; watch NWS evening climate summary for final observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,417End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a Houston high temperature of 86°F or higher today, driven by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts projecting 88°F amid hazy, mostly cloudy conditions with southerly winds transporting warm, humid Gulf air. Current observations confirm this trajectory, with 84°F already recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)—the likely resolution station—and heat indices exceeding 90°F, surpassing yesterday's 84°F high in a building ridge of high pressure. This marks Houston's first 90°F reading of 2026 per local reports, well above the April climatological average of 79°F. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorm development or thickening marine stratus, though model ensembles show low odds; watch NWS evening climate summary for final observed peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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