Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on April 24, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, backed by official observations from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports and NOAA-relayed data confirming a daytime maximum of 18°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) daily summaries align, recording peaks in the 15–20°C range amid seasonal norms for late April, where historical highs average 16–17°C amid emerging spring warmth. This positioning reflects resolved uncertainty from pre-event forecasts predicting mild conditions below 20°C, with no significant deviations. Realistic challenges would require post-measurement revisions from MGM or supplemental station data showing a higher peak, though such adjustments are rare once validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 24?
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$108,324 Vol.
$108,324 Vol.
Apr 24, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$108,324 Vol.
$108,324 Vol.
Apr 24, 2026
9°C or below
$1,156 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,617 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,322 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,019 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,863 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,665 Vol.
No
15°C
$6,046 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,741 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,157 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,624 Vol.
Yes
19°C or higher
$67,114 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on April 24, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, backed by official observations from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports and NOAA-relayed data confirming a daytime maximum of 18°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) daily summaries align, recording peaks in the 15–20°C range amid seasonal norms for late April, where historical highs average 16–17°C amid emerging spring warmth. This positioning reflects resolved uncertainty from pre-event forecasts predicting mild conditions below 20°C, with no significant deviations. Realistic challenges would require post-measurement revisions from MGM or supplemental station data showing a higher peak, though such adjustments are rare once validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 AM ET
Volume
$108,324End Date
Apr 24, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on April 24, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, backed by official observations from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports and NOAA-relayed data confirming a daytime maximum of 18°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) daily summaries align, recording peaks in the 15–20°C range amid seasonal norms for late April, where historical highs average 16–17°C amid emerging spring warmth. This positioning reflects resolved uncertainty from pre-event forecasts predicting mild conditions below 20°C, with no significant deviations. Realistic challenges would require post-measurement revisions from MGM or supplemental station data showing a higher peak, though such adjustments are rare once validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$108,324End Date
Apr 24, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Istanbul on April 24, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, backed by official observations from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports and NOAA-relayed data confirming a daytime maximum of 18°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) daily summaries align, recording peaks in the 15–20°C range amid seasonal norms for late April, where historical highs average 16–17°C amid emerging spring warmth. This positioning reflects resolved uncertainty from pre-event forecasts predicting mild conditions below 20°C, with no significant deviations. Realistic challenges would require post-measurement revisions from MGM or supplemental station data showing a higher peak, though such adjustments are rare once validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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