Recent Met Office forecasts project a maximum of 24°C for London on July 1, establishing the core driver behind market-implied odds favoring 24–26°C. Ensemble model consensus indicates modest warming under building high pressure with light winds and limited Atlantic moisture, consistent with climatological July averages near 22–23°C at London stations. The broader summer outlook notes elevated odds of above-average temperatures across the UK, yet short-range guidance shows no rapid intensification or heat advection that would push values toward 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these official projections against typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty from evolving pressure gradients and potential model revisions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on July 1?
Highest temperature in London on July 1?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$138,501 Vol.
$138,501 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$138,501 Vol.
$138,501 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
$2,785 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,593 Vol.
No
23°C
$14,638 Vol.
No
24°C
$23,546 Vol.
No
25°C
$22,320 Vol.
No
26°C
$29,536 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$19,195 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,908 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,027 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,428 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$3,526 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts project a maximum of 24°C for London on July 1, establishing the core driver behind market-implied odds favoring 24–26°C. Ensemble model consensus indicates modest warming under building high pressure with light winds and limited Atlantic moisture, consistent with climatological July averages near 22–23°C at London stations. The broader summer outlook notes elevated odds of above-average temperatures across the UK, yet short-range guidance shows no rapid intensification or heat advection that would push values toward 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these official projections against typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty from evolving pressure gradients and potential model revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$138,501End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts project a maximum of 24°C for London on July 1, establishing the core driver behind market-implied odds favoring 24–26°C. Ensemble model consensus indicates modest warming under building high pressure with light winds and limited Atlantic moisture, consistent with climatological July averages near 22–23°C at London stations. The broader summer outlook notes elevated odds of above-average temperatures across the UK, yet short-range guidance shows no rapid intensification or heat advection that would push values toward 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these official projections against typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty from evolving pressure gradients and potential model revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$138,501End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent Met Office forecasts project a maximum of 24°C for London on July 1, establishing the core driver behind market-implied odds favoring 24–26°C. Ensemble model consensus indicates modest warming under building high pressure with light winds and limited Atlantic moisture, consistent with climatological July averages near 22–23°C at London stations. The broader summer outlook notes elevated odds of above-average temperatures across the UK, yet short-range guidance shows no rapid intensification or heat advection that would push values toward 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these official projections against typical 48-hour forecast uncertainty from evolving pressure gradients and potential model revisions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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