Recent National Weather Service and regional model consensus for Mexico City points to a highest temperature on June 21 near 23–26 °C amid the onset of the rainy season, which has driven the market’s tight clustering around 24 °C (24.5 %), 25 °C (35.5 %), and 26 °C (24.5 %). Afternoon convection and increasing cloud cover typically cap daytime maxima several degrees below late-spring peaks, while historical June averages of 24–25 °C and the last week’s observed highs in the same range reinforce this range. Updated short-range guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes outside 23–26 °C below 10 % each. Traders are therefore weighting the most likely forecast envelope rather than outlier model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on June 21?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on June 21?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,337 Vol.
$30,337 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$30,337 Vol.
$30,337 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
19°C or below
$209 Vol.
No
20°C
$210 Vol.
No
21°C
$9,035 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,841 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,888 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,366 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,856 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$2,583 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,421 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,057 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$871 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and regional model consensus for Mexico City points to a highest temperature on June 21 near 23–26 °C amid the onset of the rainy season, which has driven the market’s tight clustering around 24 °C (24.5 %), 25 °C (35.5 %), and 26 °C (24.5 %). Afternoon convection and increasing cloud cover typically cap daytime maxima several degrees below late-spring peaks, while historical June averages of 24–25 °C and the last week’s observed highs in the same range reinforce this range. Updated short-range guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes outside 23–26 °C below 10 % each. Traders are therefore weighting the most likely forecast envelope rather than outlier model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 19, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Volume
$30,337End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 9:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and regional model consensus for Mexico City points to a highest temperature on June 21 near 23–26 °C amid the onset of the rainy season, which has driven the market’s tight clustering around 24 °C (24.5 %), 25 °C (35.5 %), and 26 °C (24.5 %). Afternoon convection and increasing cloud cover typically cap daytime maxima several degrees below late-spring peaks, while historical June averages of 24–25 °C and the last week’s observed highs in the same range reinforce this range. Updated short-range guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes outside 23–26 °C below 10 % each. Traders are therefore weighting the most likely forecast envelope rather than outlier model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,337End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 9:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service and regional model consensus for Mexico City points to a highest temperature on June 21 near 23–26 °C amid the onset of the rainy season, which has driven the market’s tight clustering around 24 °C (24.5 %), 25 °C (35.5 %), and 26 °C (24.5 %). Afternoon convection and increasing cloud cover typically cap daytime maxima several degrees below late-spring peaks, while historical June averages of 24–25 °C and the last week’s observed highs in the same range reinforce this range. Updated short-range guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes outside 23–26 °C below 10 % each. Traders are therefore weighting the most likely forecast envelope rather than outlier model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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