Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors highs of 21°C or higher in Milan today at 94.5% implied probability, driven by the latest guidance from Italy's official Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica Militare (MeteoAM) projecting around 20-21°C alongside upside from ECMWF and other model ensembles showing peaks to 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Morning observations at Milan Malpensa Airport indicate starting temperatures near 14°C with ample solar insolation and light winds enabling strong diurnal heating typical of spring anticyclonic conditions. This aligns with recent days' mild pattern, exceeding April climatological averages of 17°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon cloud buildup or isolated thunderstorms reducing peak temperatures to exactly 20°C, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on April 20?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 20?
21°C or higher 94.5%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$51,330 Vol.
$51,330 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
Yes
21°C or higher 94.5%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$51,330 Vol.
$51,330 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
11°C or below
$1,400 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,344 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,534 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,947 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,453 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,891 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,368 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,048 Vol.
No
19°C
$6,299 Vol.
No
20°C
$10,457 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$13,588 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors highs of 21°C or higher in Milan today at 94.5% implied probability, driven by the latest guidance from Italy's official Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica Militare (MeteoAM) projecting around 20-21°C alongside upside from ECMWF and other model ensembles showing peaks to 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Morning observations at Milan Malpensa Airport indicate starting temperatures near 14°C with ample solar insolation and light winds enabling strong diurnal heating typical of spring anticyclonic conditions. This aligns with recent days' mild pattern, exceeding April climatological averages of 17°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon cloud buildup or isolated thunderstorms reducing peak temperatures to exactly 20°C, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$51,330End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors highs of 21°C or higher in Milan today at 94.5% implied probability, driven by the latest guidance from Italy's official Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica Militare (MeteoAM) projecting around 20-21°C alongside upside from ECMWF and other model ensembles showing peaks to 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Morning observations at Milan Malpensa Airport indicate starting temperatures near 14°C with ample solar insolation and light winds enabling strong diurnal heating typical of spring anticyclonic conditions. This aligns with recent days' mild pattern, exceeding April climatological averages of 17°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon cloud buildup or isolated thunderstorms reducing peak temperatures to exactly 20°C, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,330End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors highs of 21°C or higher in Milan today at 94.5% implied probability, driven by the latest guidance from Italy's official Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica Militare (MeteoAM) projecting around 20-21°C alongside upside from ECMWF and other model ensembles showing peaks to 22°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Morning observations at Milan Malpensa Airport indicate starting temperatures near 14°C with ample solar insolation and light winds enabling strong diurnal heating typical of spring anticyclonic conditions. This aligns with recent days' mild pattern, exceeding April climatological averages of 17°C. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon cloud buildup or isolated thunderstorms reducing peak temperatures to exactly 20°C, though model agreement remains robust with hourly updates through evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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