Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on April 25, 2026, backed by official observations from the Vnukovo International Airport weather station (NOAA data source for resolution), which recorded a daily maximum of 10.3°C—rounding to whole degrees as per market criteria. This aligns with recent Gismeteo and AccuWeather model runs forecasting peaks of 9–10°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity suppressing solar insolation, and cool northerly flows following a brief warm-up earlier in the week (e.g., 13.6°C max on April 22). With the meteorological day concluded, only a post-finalization revision by NOAA could challenge this, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor. Watch for official NOAA timeseries confirmation at UUWW for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 25?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 25?
10°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$79,573 Vol.
$79,573 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
3°C or below
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$79,573 Vol.
$79,573 Vol.
Apr 25, 2026
3°C or below
$1,388 Vol.
No
4°C
$2,095 Vol.
No
5°C
$3,347 Vol.
No
6°C
$3,092 Vol.
No
7°C
$5,008 Vol.
No
8°C
$8,130 Vol.
No
9°C
$3,379 Vol.
No
10°C
$15,015 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$15,902 Vol.
No
12°C
$12,651 Vol.
No
13°C or higher
$9,566 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on April 25, 2026, backed by official observations from the Vnukovo International Airport weather station (NOAA data source for resolution), which recorded a daily maximum of 10.3°C—rounding to whole degrees as per market criteria. This aligns with recent Gismeteo and AccuWeather model runs forecasting peaks of 9–10°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity suppressing solar insolation, and cool northerly flows following a brief warm-up earlier in the week (e.g., 13.6°C max on April 22). With the meteorological day concluded, only a post-finalization revision by NOAA could challenge this, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor. Watch for official NOAA timeseries confirmation at UUWW for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$79,573End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on April 25, 2026, backed by official observations from the Vnukovo International Airport weather station (NOAA data source for resolution), which recorded a daily maximum of 10.3°C—rounding to whole degrees as per market criteria. This aligns with recent Gismeteo and AccuWeather model runs forecasting peaks of 9–10°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity suppressing solar insolation, and cool northerly flows following a brief warm-up earlier in the week (e.g., 13.6°C max on April 22). With the meteorological day concluded, only a post-finalization revision by NOAA could challenge this, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor. Watch for official NOAA timeseries confirmation at UUWW for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$79,573End Date
Apr 25, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Moscow's highest temperature reaching exactly 10°C on April 25, 2026, backed by official observations from the Vnukovo International Airport weather station (NOAA data source for resolution), which recorded a daily maximum of 10.3°C—rounding to whole degrees as per market criteria. This aligns with recent Gismeteo and AccuWeather model runs forecasting peaks of 9–10°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity suppressing solar insolation, and cool northerly flows following a brief warm-up earlier in the week (e.g., 13.6°C max on April 22). With the meteorological day concluded, only a post-finalization revision by NOAA could challenge this, though such adjustments are rare and typically minor. Watch for official NOAA timeseries confirmation at UUWW for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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