Stable high-pressure systems and minimal cloud cover over central Russia have set up Moscow for a daytime maximum near 30°C today, driving the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. Official forecasts emphasize moderate surface warming from strong solar insolation under anticyclonic conditions, typical for late May when regional temperatures align closely with climatological averages around 19–22°C. This convergence of short-range model guidance and real-time observations supports the current trader positioning. Brief convective activity or localized urban heat-island amplification could nudge isolated readings slightly higher, yet such factors are unlikely to shift the official high beyond the 30°C threshold based on the latest meteorological updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 21?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$49,682 Vol.
$49,682 Vol.
May 21, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$49,682 Vol.
$49,682 Vol.
May 21, 2026
23°C or below
$3,267 Vol.
No
24°C
$705 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,435 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,612 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,644 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,978 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,294 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,366 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$5,075 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,349 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$14,956 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure systems and minimal cloud cover over central Russia have set up Moscow for a daytime maximum near 30°C today, driving the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. Official forecasts emphasize moderate surface warming from strong solar insolation under anticyclonic conditions, typical for late May when regional temperatures align closely with climatological averages around 19–22°C. This convergence of short-range model guidance and real-time observations supports the current trader positioning. Brief convective activity or localized urban heat-island amplification could nudge isolated readings slightly higher, yet such factors are unlikely to shift the official high beyond the 30°C threshold based on the latest meteorological updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$49,682End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Stable high-pressure systems and minimal cloud cover over central Russia have set up Moscow for a daytime maximum near 30°C today, driving the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. Official forecasts emphasize moderate surface warming from strong solar insolation under anticyclonic conditions, typical for late May when regional temperatures align closely with climatological averages around 19–22°C. This convergence of short-range model guidance and real-time observations supports the current trader positioning. Brief convective activity or localized urban heat-island amplification could nudge isolated readings slightly higher, yet such factors are unlikely to shift the official high beyond the 30°C threshold based on the latest meteorological updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,682End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Stable high-pressure systems and minimal cloud cover over central Russia have set up Moscow for a daytime maximum near 30°C today, driving the market’s near-certain consensus on this outcome. Official forecasts emphasize moderate surface warming from strong solar insolation under anticyclonic conditions, typical for late May when regional temperatures align closely with climatological averages around 19–22°C. This convergence of short-range model guidance and real-time observations supports the current trader positioning. Brief convective activity or localized urban heat-island amplification could nudge isolated readings slightly higher, yet such factors are unlikely to shift the official high beyond the 30°C threshold based on the latest meteorological updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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