Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C in São Paulo on July 2, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities for those outcomes. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, a stable subtropical high-pressure system typically suppresses convection and limits cloud cover, allowing modest solar heating to push afternoon temperatures into this range amid average July climatology of 21–24°C. Small differences between 26°C and 27°C hinge on localized factors such as urban heat island effects, boundary-layer wind speeds, and minor variations in incoming shortwave radiation or low-level moisture. Ensemble model runs show limited spread for this short-range event, though any increase in afternoon cloudiness or stronger advection could cap the maximum below 27°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 2?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 2?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$67,120 Vol.
$67,120 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$67,120 Vol.
$67,120 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
20°C or below
$3,725 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,586 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,253 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,656 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,016 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,851 Vol.
No
26°C
$16,812 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$11,593 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,800 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,278 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,550 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C in São Paulo on July 2, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities for those outcomes. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, a stable subtropical high-pressure system typically suppresses convection and limits cloud cover, allowing modest solar heating to push afternoon temperatures into this range amid average July climatology of 21–24°C. Small differences between 26°C and 27°C hinge on localized factors such as urban heat island effects, boundary-layer wind speeds, and minor variations in incoming shortwave radiation or low-level moisture. Ensemble model runs show limited spread for this short-range event, though any increase in afternoon cloudiness or stronger advection could cap the maximum below 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$67,120End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C in São Paulo on July 2, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities for those outcomes. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, a stable subtropical high-pressure system typically suppresses convection and limits cloud cover, allowing modest solar heating to push afternoon temperatures into this range amid average July climatology of 21–24°C. Small differences between 26°C and 27°C hinge on localized factors such as urban heat island effects, boundary-layer wind speeds, and minor variations in incoming shortwave radiation or low-level moisture. Ensemble model runs show limited spread for this short-range event, though any increase in afternoon cloudiness or stronger advection could cap the maximum below 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,120End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daytime high near 26–27°C in São Paulo on July 2, 2026, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities for those outcomes. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, a stable subtropical high-pressure system typically suppresses convection and limits cloud cover, allowing modest solar heating to push afternoon temperatures into this range amid average July climatology of 21–24°C. Small differences between 26°C and 27°C hinge on localized factors such as urban heat island effects, boundary-layer wind speeds, and minor variations in incoming shortwave radiation or low-level moisture. Ensemble model runs show limited spread for this short-range event, though any increase in afternoon cloudiness or stronger advection could cap the maximum below 27°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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