Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a high-pressure system over central Europe will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions to Warsaw on June 23, supporting daytime maxima near 26–28°C based on 850 hPa temperatures and surface heating rates. This aligns with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds, where 26°C and 27°C lead at 39.5% and 26.5%. June climatology for the region shows average highs around 22–24°C, so the elevated values stem from recent warm advection and limited cloud cover reducing diurnal cooling. Short-term model runs exhibit low spread for peak readings, though minor shifts in wind or timing of any afternoon convection could adjust the exact maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 23?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$41,455 Vol.
$41,455 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$41,455 Vol.
$41,455 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
21°C or below
$212 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,007 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,512 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,472 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,401 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,538 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,711 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,277 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,757 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,050 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$1,520 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a high-pressure system over central Europe will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions to Warsaw on June 23, supporting daytime maxima near 26–28°C based on 850 hPa temperatures and surface heating rates. This aligns with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds, where 26°C and 27°C lead at 39.5% and 26.5%. June climatology for the region shows average highs around 22–24°C, so the elevated values stem from recent warm advection and limited cloud cover reducing diurnal cooling. Short-term model runs exhibit low spread for peak readings, though minor shifts in wind or timing of any afternoon convection could adjust the exact maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 21, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$41,455End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 21, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a high-pressure system over central Europe will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions to Warsaw on June 23, supporting daytime maxima near 26–28°C based on 850 hPa temperatures and surface heating rates. This aligns with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds, where 26°C and 27°C lead at 39.5% and 26.5%. June climatology for the region shows average highs around 22–24°C, so the elevated values stem from recent warm advection and limited cloud cover reducing diurnal cooling. Short-term model runs exhibit low spread for peak readings, though minor shifts in wind or timing of any afternoon convection could adjust the exact maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,455End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 21, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a high-pressure system over central Europe will bring mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions to Warsaw on June 23, supporting daytime maxima near 26–28°C based on 850 hPa temperatures and surface heating rates. This aligns with trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds, where 26°C and 27°C lead at 39.5% and 26.5%. June climatology for the region shows average highs around 22–24°C, so the elevated values stem from recent warm advection and limited cloud cover reducing diurnal cooling. Short-term model runs exhibit low spread for peak readings, though minor shifts in wind or timing of any afternoon convection could adjust the exact maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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