Recent forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high-pressure ridge over central Europe will advect warmer southerly air into Poland, with surface highs for Warsaw on June 25 expected near 29–31°C under mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and cloud cover two days out, which keeps 30°C the narrow market leader at 24% implied probability. Historical June climatology shows average daily maxima around 23–25°C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern rather than extreme heat. Traders will watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates for any shift in thermal advection or afternoon convection that could alter peak readings before official IMGW verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on June 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on June 25?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$41,830 Vol.
$41,830 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$41,830 Vol.
$41,830 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
25°C or below
$1,517 Vol.
No
26°C
$934 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,437 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,839 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,559 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,743 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,544 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$4,358 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,832 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,410 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$4,657 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high-pressure ridge over central Europe will advect warmer southerly air into Poland, with surface highs for Warsaw on June 25 expected near 29–31°C under mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and cloud cover two days out, which keeps 30°C the narrow market leader at 24% implied probability. Historical June climatology shows average daily maxima around 23–25°C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern rather than extreme heat. Traders will watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates for any shift in thermal advection or afternoon convection that could alter peak readings before official IMGW verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$41,830End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high-pressure ridge over central Europe will advect warmer southerly air into Poland, with surface highs for Warsaw on June 25 expected near 29–31°C under mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and cloud cover two days out, which keeps 30°C the narrow market leader at 24% implied probability. Historical June climatology shows average daily maxima around 23–25°C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern rather than extreme heat. Traders will watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates for any shift in thermal advection or afternoon convection that could alter peak readings before official IMGW verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,830End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high-pressure ridge over central Europe will advect warmer southerly air into Poland, with surface highs for Warsaw on June 25 expected near 29–31°C under mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting typical uncertainty in boundary-layer heating and cloud cover two days out, which keeps 30°C the narrow market leader at 24% implied probability. Historical June climatology shows average daily maxima around 23–25°C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern rather than extreme heat. Traders will watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates for any shift in thermal advection or afternoon convection that could alter peak readings before official IMGW verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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