Current short-range forecasts from GFS and related models indicate a high near 19–20 °C in Warsaw on September 5, driven by strengthening westerly flow ahead of a frontal system that will increase cloud cover, showers, and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and enhance mixing, keeping maximum temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 20–22 °C. Ensemble spread and minor timing differences in precipitation explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21 °C, while stronger or earlier rain would favor the lower end and clearer intervals the higher. Updated model runs and official observations through September 4 will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
20°C 39%
21°C 34%
23°C 9%
18°C or below 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
39%
21°C
34%
22°C
6%
23°C
9%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
20°C 39%
21°C 34%
23°C 9%
18°C or below 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$10 Vol.
39%
21°C
$179 Vol.
34%
22°C
$41 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from GFS and related models indicate a high near 19–20 °C in Warsaw on September 5, driven by strengthening westerly flow ahead of a frontal system that will increase cloud cover, showers, and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and enhance mixing, keeping maximum temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 20–22 °C. Ensemble spread and minor timing differences in precipitation explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21 °C, while stronger or earlier rain would favor the lower end and clearer intervals the higher. Updated model runs and official observations through September 4 will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$189End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from GFS and related models indicate a high near 19–20 °C in Warsaw on September 5, driven by strengthening westerly flow ahead of a frontal system that will increase cloud cover, showers, and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and enhance mixing, keeping maximum temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 20–22 °C. Ensemble spread and minor timing differences in precipitation explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21 °C, while stronger or earlier rain would favor the lower end and clearer intervals the higher. Updated model runs and official observations through September 4 will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$189End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from GFS and related models indicate a high near 19–20 °C in Warsaw on September 5, driven by strengthening westerly flow ahead of a frontal system that will increase cloud cover, showers, and scattered thunderstorms. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and enhance mixing, keeping maximum temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 20–22 °C. Ensemble spread and minor timing differences in precipitation explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21 °C, while stronger or earlier rain would favor the lower end and clearer intervals the higher. Updated model runs and official observations through September 4 will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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