**Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum near 21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light precipitation possible on September 4.** Persistent cloud cover and moderate southwesterly winds are expected to limit daytime heating while a passing front introduces variable moisture, keeping highs tightly clustered between 20–22°C. Recent model runs show minor spreads driven by differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact frontal timing, with 21°C emerging as the most frequent outcome across high-resolution guidance. Historical September baselines for Warsaw (around 18–20°C) provide context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal values moderated by the anticipated overcast conditions. Updated model outputs from the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 21%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
6%
20°C
21%
21°C
42%
22°C
29%
23°C
11%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
21°C 42%
22°C 29%
20°C 21%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$20 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$131 Vol.
21%
21°C
$247 Vol.
42%
22°C
$126 Vol.
29%
23°C
$89 Vol.
11%
24°C
$90 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum near 21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light precipitation possible on September 4.**
Persistent cloud cover and moderate southwesterly winds are expected to limit daytime heating while a passing front introduces variable moisture, keeping highs tightly clustered between 20–22°C. Recent model runs show minor spreads driven by differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact frontal timing, with 21°C emerging as the most frequent outcome across high-resolution guidance. Historical September baselines for Warsaw (around 18–20°C) provide context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal values moderated by the anticipated overcast conditions. Updated model outputs from the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$703End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum near 21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light precipitation possible on September 4.**
Persistent cloud cover and moderate southwesterly winds are expected to limit daytime heating while a passing front introduces variable moisture, keeping highs tightly clustered between 20–22°C. Recent model runs show minor spreads driven by differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact frontal timing, with 21°C emerging as the most frequent outcome across high-resolution guidance. Historical September baselines for Warsaw (around 18–20°C) provide context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal values moderated by the anticipated overcast conditions. Updated model outputs from the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$703End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a maximum near 21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light precipitation possible on September 4.** Persistent cloud cover and moderate southwesterly winds are expected to limit daytime heating while a passing front introduces variable moisture, keeping highs tightly clustered between 20–22°C. Recent model runs show minor spreads driven by differences in boundary-layer moisture and exact frontal timing, with 21°C emerging as the most frequent outcome across high-resolution guidance. Historical September baselines for Warsaw (around 18–20°C) provide context, but the current pattern favors slightly above-normal values moderated by the anticipated overcast conditions. Updated model outputs from the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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