**Market-implied odds show notable uncertainty around the daily minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, with the 13°C-or-below outcome leading at 37.5% and 23°C-or-higher close behind at 34.5%.** Specific values cluster tightly between 14–17°C (27–31% range), reflecting trader assessment of model spread rather than a single consensus. The primary driver is the timing and strength of a cold front or polar air mass advection interacting with the subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations indicate a shift from warmer, drier northwesterly flow (supporting higher overnight minima around 17–18°C via reduced radiative cooling) toward southeasterly winds and increased cloud cover or moisture, which could enhance cooling and push the minimum lower. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 12°C, so current guidance sits above normal but with high variability. Key differentiating factors include nocturnal cloud fraction (clear skies accelerate cooling via longwave radiation loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (calm conditions favor colder surface temperatures), and dew-point depressions that influence fog or stratus formation. Numerical weather prediction models diverge on the exact arrival of cooler air overnight, creating the balanced probabilities. Resolution depends on official INMET or equivalent station readings of the 24-hour minimum; fresh model runs and satellite trends over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 4?
23°C or higher 66%
20°C 50%
19°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
37%
14°C
27%
15°C
31%
16°C
31%
17°C
27%
18°C
19%
19°C
48%
20°C
50%
21°C
48%
22°C
48%
23°C or higher
66%
23°C or higher 66%
20°C 50%
19°C 48%
21°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
37%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$17 Vol.
31%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$87 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
50%
21°C
$0 Vol.
48%
22°C
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show notable uncertainty around the daily minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, with the 13°C-or-below outcome leading at 37.5% and 23°C-or-higher close behind at 34.5%.** Specific values cluster tightly between 14–17°C (27–31% range), reflecting trader assessment of model spread rather than a single consensus.
The primary driver is the timing and strength of a cold front or polar air mass advection interacting with the subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations indicate a shift from warmer, drier northwesterly flow (supporting higher overnight minima around 17–18°C via reduced radiative cooling) toward southeasterly winds and increased cloud cover or moisture, which could enhance cooling and push the minimum lower. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 12°C, so current guidance sits above normal but with high variability.
Key differentiating factors include nocturnal cloud fraction (clear skies accelerate cooling via longwave radiation loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (calm conditions favor colder surface temperatures), and dew-point depressions that influence fog or stratus formation. Numerical weather prediction models diverge on the exact arrival of cooler air overnight, creating the balanced probabilities. Resolution depends on official INMET or equivalent station readings of the 24-hour minimum; fresh model runs and satellite trends over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show notable uncertainty around the daily minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, with the 13°C-or-below outcome leading at 37.5% and 23°C-or-higher close behind at 34.5%.** Specific values cluster tightly between 14–17°C (27–31% range), reflecting trader assessment of model spread rather than a single consensus.
The primary driver is the timing and strength of a cold front or polar air mass advection interacting with the subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations indicate a shift from warmer, drier northwesterly flow (supporting higher overnight minima around 17–18°C via reduced radiative cooling) toward southeasterly winds and increased cloud cover or moisture, which could enhance cooling and push the minimum lower. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 12°C, so current guidance sits above normal but with high variability.
Key differentiating factors include nocturnal cloud fraction (clear skies accelerate cooling via longwave radiation loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (calm conditions favor colder surface temperatures), and dew-point depressions that influence fog or stratus formation. Numerical weather prediction models diverge on the exact arrival of cooler air overnight, creating the balanced probabilities. Resolution depends on official INMET or equivalent station readings of the 24-hour minimum; fresh model runs and satellite trends over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds show notable uncertainty around the daily minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, with the 13°C-or-below outcome leading at 37.5% and 23°C-or-higher close behind at 34.5%.** Specific values cluster tightly between 14–17°C (27–31% range), reflecting trader assessment of model spread rather than a single consensus. The primary driver is the timing and strength of a cold front or polar air mass advection interacting with the subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations indicate a shift from warmer, drier northwesterly flow (supporting higher overnight minima around 17–18°C via reduced radiative cooling) toward southeasterly winds and increased cloud cover or moisture, which could enhance cooling and push the minimum lower. Historical September climatology shows average lows near 12°C, so current guidance sits above normal but with high variability. Key differentiating factors include nocturnal cloud fraction (clear skies accelerate cooling via longwave radiation loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (calm conditions favor colder surface temperatures), and dew-point depressions that influence fog or stratus formation. Numerical weather prediction models diverge on the exact arrival of cooler air overnight, creating the balanced probabilities. Resolution depends on official INMET or equivalent station readings of the 24-hour minimum; fresh model runs and satellite trends over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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