**Short-range forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models currently favors a high near 80°F in New York City on September 5 under building high pressure and northerly flow following midweek frontal passage.** This setup supports mostly sunny skies with limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to early-September climatology after recent humid conditions. The evenly distributed market-implied odds across the 76–88°F range reflect genuine ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind direction, and any lingering urban heat effects two days before resolution. Key variables that could shift the outcome include the strength of the post-frontal ridge and precise model consensus on maximum temperatures. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion represent the primary near-term catalysts likely to influence trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 5?
78-79°F 37%
82-83°F 34%
76-77°F 23%
84-85°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
37%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88°F or higher
14%
78-79°F 37%
82-83°F 34%
76-77°F 23%
84-85°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
9%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
37%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
20%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
34%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
20%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
19%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-range forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models currently favors a high near 80°F in New York City on September 5 under building high pressure and northerly flow following midweek frontal passage.** This setup supports mostly sunny skies with limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to early-September climatology after recent humid conditions. The evenly distributed market-implied odds across the 76–88°F range reflect genuine ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind direction, and any lingering urban heat effects two days before resolution. Key variables that could shift the outcome include the strength of the post-frontal ridge and precise model consensus on maximum temperatures. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion represent the primary near-term catalysts likely to influence trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-range forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models currently favors a high near 80°F in New York City on September 5 under building high pressure and northerly flow following midweek frontal passage.** This setup supports mostly sunny skies with limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to early-September climatology after recent humid conditions. The evenly distributed market-implied odds across the 76–88°F range reflect genuine ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind direction, and any lingering urban heat effects two days before resolution. Key variables that could shift the outcome include the strength of the post-frontal ridge and precise model consensus on maximum temperatures. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion represent the primary near-term catalysts likely to influence trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-range forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models currently favors a high near 80°F in New York City on September 5 under building high pressure and northerly flow following midweek frontal passage.** This setup supports mostly sunny skies with limited moisture, keeping temperatures close to early-September climatology after recent humid conditions. The evenly distributed market-implied odds across the 76–88°F range reflect genuine ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind direction, and any lingering urban heat effects two days before resolution. Key variables that could shift the outcome include the strength of the post-frontal ridge and precise model consensus on maximum temperatures. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion represent the primary near-term catalysts likely to influence trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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