Recent NWS and ensemble guidance for New York City points to a September 5 minimum near 65–70 °F after a frontal passage brings northerly flow and partial clearing, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 68–71 °F bands. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and dew-point suppression from drier air will set the floor, while urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty. Historical early-September climatology for Central Park shows typical lows near 62–66 °F, so current model consensus slightly above that baseline explains why lower-probability tails below 64 °F and above 72 °F remain discounted. Updated model runs and the National Weather Service’s evening forecast discussion on September 4 will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 5?
61°F or below 47%
80°F or higher 46%
62-63°F 45%
72-73°F 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
47%
62-63°F
45%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
33%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
45%
74-75°F
45%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
26%
80°F or higher
46%
61°F or below 47%
80°F or higher 46%
62-63°F 45%
72-73°F 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
47%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
45%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
33%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
29%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
45%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
45%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and ensemble guidance for New York City points to a September 5 minimum near 65–70 °F after a frontal passage brings northerly flow and partial clearing, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 68–71 °F bands. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and dew-point suppression from drier air will set the floor, while urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty. Historical early-September climatology for Central Park shows typical lows near 62–66 °F, so current model consensus slightly above that baseline explains why lower-probability tails below 64 °F and above 72 °F remain discounted. Updated model runs and the National Weather Service’s evening forecast discussion on September 4 will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent NWS and ensemble guidance for New York City points to a September 5 minimum near 65–70 °F after a frontal passage brings northerly flow and partial clearing, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 68–71 °F bands. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and dew-point suppression from drier air will set the floor, while urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty. Historical early-September climatology for Central Park shows typical lows near 62–66 °F, so current model consensus slightly above that baseline explains why lower-probability tails below 64 °F and above 72 °F remain discounted. Updated model runs and the National Weather Service’s evening forecast discussion on September 4 will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NWS and ensemble guidance for New York City points to a September 5 minimum near 65–70 °F after a frontal passage brings northerly flow and partial clearing, supporting the market’s tight clustering around the 68–71 °F bands. Radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and dew-point suppression from drier air will set the floor, while urban heat-island effects and any lingering cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty. Historical early-September climatology for Central Park shows typical lows near 62–66 °F, so current model consensus slightly above that baseline explains why lower-probability tails below 64 °F and above 72 °F remain discounted. Updated model runs and the National Weather Service’s evening forecast discussion on September 4 will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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