Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai will experience persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds on September 3, limiting surface heating under a transitional monsoon pattern. These conditions—high humidity near 75-85% and reduced insolation—favor a daily maximum near 29-30°C rather than the seasonal baseline of 31-32°C, with precipitation timing and intensity as the key variables that could shift the peak by 1°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact rainfall amounts and boundary-layer mixing, keeping 30°C and 31°C as the tightly contested leading outcomes in trader consensus. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed peak readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 3?
30°C 40%
31°C 36%
29°C 18%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
18%
30°C
40%
31°C
36%
32°C
6%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
31°C 36%
29°C 18%
28°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$599 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$210 Vol.
1%
27°C
$37 Vol.
1%
28°C
$51 Vol.
6%
29°C
$105 Vol.
18%
30°C
$226 Vol.
40%
31°C
$192 Vol.
36%
32°C
$159 Vol.
6%
33°C
$14 Vol.
1%
34°C
$14 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$253 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai will experience persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds on September 3, limiting surface heating under a transitional monsoon pattern. These conditions—high humidity near 75-85% and reduced insolation—favor a daily maximum near 29-30°C rather than the seasonal baseline of 31-32°C, with precipitation timing and intensity as the key variables that could shift the peak by 1°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact rainfall amounts and boundary-layer mixing, keeping 30°C and 31°C as the tightly contested leading outcomes in trader consensus. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed peak readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,858End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai will experience persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds on September 3, limiting surface heating under a transitional monsoon pattern. These conditions—high humidity near 75-85% and reduced insolation—favor a daily maximum near 29-30°C rather than the seasonal baseline of 31-32°C, with precipitation timing and intensity as the key variables that could shift the peak by 1°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact rainfall amounts and boundary-layer mixing, keeping 30°C and 31°C as the tightly contested leading outcomes in trader consensus. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed peak readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,858End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai will experience persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds on September 3, limiting surface heating under a transitional monsoon pattern. These conditions—high humidity near 75-85% and reduced insolation—favor a daily maximum near 29-30°C rather than the seasonal baseline of 31-32°C, with precipitation timing and intensity as the key variables that could shift the peak by 1°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in exact rainfall amounts and boundary-layer mixing, keeping 30°C and 31°C as the tightly contested leading outcomes in trader consensus. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed peak readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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