Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 13–14 °C in Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with trader positioning that assigns 55 % implied probability to 14 °C and 32.5 % to 13 °C. Early-spring climatology for the region features average highs near 13 °C under transitional synoptic patterns, with a weakening southwesterly flow giving way to northwesterlies and mostly sunny conditions that limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming. Light winds and dew points in the 3–6 °C range support efficient radiational heating without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Updated model runs through the morning have shown little deviation from this narrow range, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 11 % combined probability. Official hourly observations later today will confirm the peak value for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
14°C 54%
13°C 41%
15°C 14%
16°C 1.1%
NEW
$32,852 Vol.
NEW
$32,852 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
38%
14°C
59%
15°C
14%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 54%
13°C 41%
15°C 14%
16°C 1.1%
NEW
$32,852 Vol.
NEW
$32,852 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$371 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$5,187 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$6,178 Vol.
38%
14°C
$5,909 Vol.
59%
15°C
$4,934 Vol.
14%
16°C
$3,347 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,716 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$3,271 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 13–14 °C in Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with trader positioning that assigns 55 % implied probability to 14 °C and 32.5 % to 13 °C. Early-spring climatology for the region features average highs near 13 °C under transitional synoptic patterns, with a weakening southwesterly flow giving way to northwesterlies and mostly sunny conditions that limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming. Light winds and dew points in the 3–6 °C range support efficient radiational heating without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Updated model runs through the morning have shown little deviation from this narrow range, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 11 % combined probability. Official hourly observations later today will confirm the peak value for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$32,852End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 13–14 °C in Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with trader positioning that assigns 55 % implied probability to 14 °C and 32.5 % to 13 °C. Early-spring climatology for the region features average highs near 13 °C under transitional synoptic patterns, with a weakening southwesterly flow giving way to northwesterlies and mostly sunny conditions that limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming. Light winds and dew points in the 3–6 °C range support efficient radiational heating without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Updated model runs through the morning have shown little deviation from this narrow range, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 11 % combined probability. Official hourly observations later today will confirm the peak value for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,852End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 13–14 °C in Wellington on 1 September 2026, aligning with trader positioning that assigns 55 % implied probability to 14 °C and 32.5 % to 13 °C. Early-spring climatology for the region features average highs near 13 °C under transitional synoptic patterns, with a weakening southwesterly flow giving way to northwesterlies and mostly sunny conditions that limit cloud cover and allow modest daytime warming. Light winds and dew points in the 3–6 °C range support efficient radiational heating without significant marine influence or frontal activity. Updated model runs through the morning have shown little deviation from this narrow range, keeping lower and higher outcomes below 11 % combined probability. Official hourly observations later today will confirm the peak value for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions