Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
16°C 61%
17°C 18%
15°C 15%
18°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
15%
16°C
61%
17°C
18%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
17°C 18%
15°C 15%
18°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
10°C or below
$315 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$375 Vol.
1%
12°C
$407 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$458 Vol.
1%
14°C
$466 Vol.
2%
15°C
$2,169 Vol.
15%
16°C
$901 Vol.
61%
17°C
$1,164 Vol.
18%
18°C
$542 Vol.
3%
19°C
$412 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,431End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,431End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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