**Recent warm advection from a persistent subtropical high-pressure system has elevated temperatures across São Paulo, with recent daily minima near 20–24°C amid mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low humidity.** Forecasts from multiple models (including Met Office and regional guidance) converge on a minimum of roughly 19–21°C for August 31, reflecting residual warm air before an approaching cold front and associated moisture shift expected around September 1. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows near 12°C, so the current pattern represents a notable positive anomaly that traders weigh against the risk of faster cooling if the front arrives earlier or produces stronger radiational cooling under clearer skies. This narrow window between lingering warmth and the onset of seasonal cooling explains the closely matched market-implied odds around the 19–21°C range versus the broader tails for cooler or much warmer outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 31?
27°C or higher 81%
21°C 49%
24°C 46%
25°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
44%
18°C
27%
19°C
31%
20°C
25%
21°C
49%
22°C
25%
23°C
1%
24°C
46%
25°C
46%
26°C
46%
27°C or higher
81%
27°C or higher 81%
21°C 49%
24°C 46%
25°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
25%
23°C
$220 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
46%
25°C
$0 Vol.
46%
26°C
$0 Vol.
46%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent warm advection from a persistent subtropical high-pressure system has elevated temperatures across São Paulo, with recent daily minima near 20–24°C amid mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low humidity.** Forecasts from multiple models (including Met Office and regional guidance) converge on a minimum of roughly 19–21°C for August 31, reflecting residual warm air before an approaching cold front and associated moisture shift expected around September 1. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows near 12°C, so the current pattern represents a notable positive anomaly that traders weigh against the risk of faster cooling if the front arrives earlier or produces stronger radiational cooling under clearer skies. This narrow window between lingering warmth and the onset of seasonal cooling explains the closely matched market-implied odds around the 19–21°C range versus the broader tails for cooler or much warmer outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$220End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent warm advection from a persistent subtropical high-pressure system has elevated temperatures across São Paulo, with recent daily minima near 20–24°C amid mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low humidity.** Forecasts from multiple models (including Met Office and regional guidance) converge on a minimum of roughly 19–21°C for August 31, reflecting residual warm air before an approaching cold front and associated moisture shift expected around September 1. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows near 12°C, so the current pattern represents a notable positive anomaly that traders weigh against the risk of faster cooling if the front arrives earlier or produces stronger radiational cooling under clearer skies. This narrow window between lingering warmth and the onset of seasonal cooling explains the closely matched market-implied odds around the 19–21°C range versus the broader tails for cooler or much warmer outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$220End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent warm advection from a persistent subtropical high-pressure system has elevated temperatures across São Paulo, with recent daily minima near 20–24°C amid mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and low humidity.** Forecasts from multiple models (including Met Office and regional guidance) converge on a minimum of roughly 19–21°C for August 31, reflecting residual warm air before an approaching cold front and associated moisture shift expected around September 1. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows near 12°C, so the current pattern represents a notable positive anomaly that traders weigh against the risk of faster cooling if the front arrives earlier or produces stronger radiational cooling under clearer skies. This narrow window between lingering warmth and the onset of seasonal cooling explains the closely matched market-implied odds around the 19–21°C range versus the broader tails for cooler or much warmer outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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